Ukraine: Electricity outages lengthen as Russian attacks take their toll, Nov 2022
In early November the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, said that up to 40% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure had been damaged or destroyed, following several waves of missile and drone attacks by Russia over the past month on cities across Ukraine.
Russia’s switch in tactics to targeting civilian utilities followed significant military reversals in September—most notably, a rapid counterattack by Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv region in the north-east. The strikes appear to be aimed at demoralising the population by subjecting them to additional adversity through the upcoming winter, probably in the hope that this will force the Ukrainian authorities to sue for peace, allowing Russia to retain some of territorial gains from the latest phase of the conflict, especially the “land bridge” to Crimea. In Ukraine, typically, the coldest months are from December to February, although the official weather forecaster predicts only a low probability of a severe winter in 2022/23.
Since the loss of access to domestically produced anthracite coal since 2017, owing to the “Donbas blockade”, Ukraine has relied increasingly heavily on nuclear power to generate electricity, even exporting some surplus output to the EU, following the connection of power grids in March. After Russia’s initial large-scale airborne attacks of October 10th, the Ukrainian energy ministry announced that it would bring these exports to a halt. Moreover, Russia has repeatedly shown its ability to disconnect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) from Ukraine’s power grid. ZNPP, which taken over by Russian forces early on the current invasion, supplies up to one-fifth of Ukraine’s electricity.
In response, the Ukrainian authorities have called on the population to stock up on candles and blankets, and to economise on electricity use. The main cities have been subject to lengthening daily power outages, affecting not only street lights, but also intra-city transports systems. At the very least, therefore, Ukraine is facing a new and serious humanitarian crisis. However, the scale of the electricity shortages will also affect the business sector, where gradually rising levels of activity had begun to ameliorate the pace of output decline. On this, at the end of October, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU, the central) estimated that the ongoing energy shortages would affect at least 15% of Ukrainian consumers, and would lead also to a reacceleration of the pace of decline in GDP in the fourth quarter. Additional damage to civilian utilities will add to the cost of post-war reconstruction, most recently estimated conservatively in a joint analysis by the Ukrainian government and the World Bank at US$350bn.
In early November, the foreign ministers of the G7 group of industrial nations met in Münster, Germany, to co-ordinate plans to help with the defence and repair of Ukraine’s utilities’ infrastructure. On the first of these, already in October Germany provided Ukraine with the first of four IRIS-T air-defense systems, while the first US NASAMS, along with European Aspide air-defence systems, arrived in Ukraine in early December, according to the minister of defence, Oleksyi Reznikov. On aid to help Ukrainians to survive the winter amid reduced domestic energy production capacity, an international conference is to be held in Paris in mid-December.
Russia’s switch in tactics to targeting civilian utilities followed significant military reversals in September—most notably, a rapid counterattack by Ukrainian forces in Kharkiv region in the north-east. The strikes appear to be aimed at demoralising the population by subjecting them to additional adversity through the upcoming winter, probably in the hope that this will force the Ukrainian authorities to sue for peace, allowing Russia to retain some of territorial gains from the latest phase of the conflict, especially the “land bridge” to Crimea. In Ukraine, typically, the coldest months are from December to February, although the official weather forecaster predicts only a low probability of a severe winter in 2022/23.
Since the loss of access to domestically produced anthracite coal since 2017, owing to the “Donbas blockade”, Ukraine has relied increasingly heavily on nuclear power to generate electricity, even exporting some surplus output to the EU, following the connection of power grids in March. After Russia’s initial large-scale airborne attacks of October 10th, the Ukrainian energy ministry announced that it would bring these exports to a halt. Moreover, Russia has repeatedly shown its ability to disconnect the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) from Ukraine’s power grid. ZNPP, which taken over by Russian forces early on the current invasion, supplies up to one-fifth of Ukraine’s electricity.
In response, the Ukrainian authorities have called on the population to stock up on candles and blankets, and to economise on electricity use. The main cities have been subject to lengthening daily power outages, affecting not only street lights, but also intra-city transports systems. At the very least, therefore, Ukraine is facing a new and serious humanitarian crisis. However, the scale of the electricity shortages will also affect the business sector, where gradually rising levels of activity had begun to ameliorate the pace of output decline. On this, at the end of October, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU, the central) estimated that the ongoing energy shortages would affect at least 15% of Ukrainian consumers, and would lead also to a reacceleration of the pace of decline in GDP in the fourth quarter. Additional damage to civilian utilities will add to the cost of post-war reconstruction, most recently estimated conservatively in a joint analysis by the Ukrainian government and the World Bank at US$350bn.
In early November, the foreign ministers of the G7 group of industrial nations met in Münster, Germany, to co-ordinate plans to help with the defence and repair of Ukraine’s utilities’ infrastructure. On the first of these, already in October Germany provided Ukraine with the first of four IRIS-T air-defense systems, while the first US NASAMS, along with European Aspide air-defence systems, arrived in Ukraine in early December, according to the minister of defence, Oleksyi Reznikov. On aid to help Ukrainians to survive the winter amid reduced domestic energy production capacity, an international conference is to be held in Paris in mid-December.
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